Pharma Pipeline Health
MC SIMULATION Data updated: May 20, 2026
Expected drug approvals across 200 industry sponsors, computed via Monte Carlo simulation over 3,492 drug-indication programs using Wong probability-of-success rates.
What "pipeline health" measures
Pharma pipeline health is a forward-looking measure of how many FDA drug approvals a biopharma company is likely to produce from its current clinical-trial portfolio. We count distinct (drug × indication) programs at their lead Phase 1, Phase 2, or Phase 3 trial — about 3,492 programs across 200 western FDA-track sponsors — and run a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation using industry-standard Wong probability-of-success rates (Ph1 10%, Ph2 30%, Ph3 60%). The output is reported as median [80% CI] expected approvals per company over the program lifetime (~5-10 years).
Use this league to compare biopharma pipeline depth across competitors, identify companies with concentrated late-stage assets, or stress-test approval forecasts under different success-rate assumptions via the configurator below. Already-acquired companies (Shire, Allergan, Actelion, Karuna etc.) are excluded. Full methodology ↓
What this is not: expected approvals are unweighted by commercial value. One niche rare-disease approval ($50M/yr peak) counts the same as one oncology blockbuster ($20B/yr peak). A company with 5 high-value oncology Ph3 programs and a company with 5 small-population rare-disease Ph3 programs both score "5 expected approvals" — but the revenue outcomes differ by 100×. Cross-reference Compare's revenue and patent-cliff sections for the value dimension.
3,492
Active programs
Drug × indication × phase
1,331
Expected approvals
Industry-wide, all phases
99
Leader expected
AstraZeneca
200
Sponsors ranked
Top by MC expected
Probability of success:
Wong et al. 2019 global rates Big Pharma (22)
Tier 1Companies with revenue data tracked in Compare — top 5 free, rest in Pro.
| Company | Programs (P1/P2/P3) | Expected approvals (median [80% CI]) | Top indications | Recent terminations | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AstraZeneca 331 active · 244 programs | 42/88/114 | 99 [90–108] | non-small cell lung cancerbreast cancerasthma | 12 | vs Novartis → |
Novartis 233 active · 183 programs | 29/79/75 | 72 [64–79] | prostate cancerrelapsing multiple sclerosisbreast cancer | 18 | vs Merck → |
Merck Sharp & Dohme 219 active · 161 programs | 19/64/78 | 68 [60–75] | non-small cell lung cancercarcinoma, renal cellbreast neoplasms | 4 | vs Roche → |
Roche 184 active · 134 programs | 17/49/68 | 57 [50–64] | breast cancernon-small cell lung cancermultiple sclerosis | 8 | vs Eli → |
Eli Lilly 219 active · 157 programs | 50/47/60 | 55 [48–62] | obesitybreast neoplasmsulcerative colitis | 5 | vs AbbVie → |
| Company | Programs (P1/P2/P3) | Expected approvals (median [80% CI]) | Top indications | Recent terminations | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AbbVie 183 active · 131 programs | 34/40/57 | 49 [43–56] | multiple myelomacrohn's diseasemigraine | 12 | vs Janssen → |
Janssen 160 active · 114 programs | 27/28/59 | 46 [40–53] | multiple myelomacarcinoma, non-small-cell lungprostatic neoplasms | 4 | vs Pfizer → |
Pfizer 154 active · 113 programs | 22/38/53 | 45 [39–51] | breast cancermultiple myelomaatopic dermatitis | 19 | vs Bristol-Myers → |
Bristol-Myers Squibb 122 active · 93 programs | 15/29/49 | 40 [34–45] | advanced solid tumorsnon-small cell lung cancermelanoma | 2 | vs Sanofi → |
Sanofi 119 active · 83 programs | 6/42/35 | 34 [29–40] | chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polypsdermatitis atopicasthma | 9 | vs Amgen → |
Amgen 102 active · 78 programs | 19/18/41 | 32 [27–37] | extensive stage small cell lung cancercardiovascular diseaseoverweight | 5 | vs GSK → |
GSK 131 active · 85 programs | 18/38/29 | 31 [25–36] | multiple myelomaneoplasmsasthma | 7 | vs Regeneron → |
Regeneron 98 active · 78 programs | 10/38/30 | 30 [25–36] | melanomaparoxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinurianon-small cell lung cancer | 7 | vs Takeda → |
Takeda 74 active · 57 programs | 2/20/35 | 27 [23–32] | ulcerative colitiscrohn's diseasepsoriatic arthritis | 12 | vs Novo → |
Novo Nordisk 73 active · 50 programs | 15/7/28 | 20 [16–24] | obesityoverweightdiabetes mellitus, type 2 | — | vs Gilead → |
Gilead Sciences 62 active · 53 programs | 13/18/22 | 20 [16–24] | hiv-1-infectionpre-exposure prophylaxis of hiv infectiontriple negative breast cancer | 5 | vs Novo → |
Biogen 28 active · 19 programs | 1/3/15 | 10 [7–13] | muscular atrophy, spinalsubacute cutaneous lupus erythematosusantibody-mediated rejection | 4 | vs Bayer → |
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 29 active · 21 programs | 4/7/10 | 8 [6–11] | cystic fibrosisdiabetic peripheral neuropathic painbeta-thalassemia | 1 | vs Bayer → |
ModernaTX, Inc. 29 active · 20 programs | 4/13/3 | 6 [4–9] | respiratory syncytial virusadvanced solid tumorssars-cov-2 | 4 | vs BioMarin → |
BioMarin Pharmaceutical 19 active · 13 programs | 1/7/5 | 5 [3–7] | achondroplasiahypochondroplasiaphenylketonuria | — | vs ModernaTX, → |
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals 17 active · 14 programs | 4/6/4 | 5 [3–7] | transthyretin amyloidosis (attr) with cardiomyopathyhigh risk cardiovascular diseaseobese or overweight healthy volunteers | — | vs Jazz → |
Jazz Pharmaceuticals 16 active · 14 programs | 4/6/4 | 5 [3–7] | gastric neoplasmsmeningiomah3 k27m | 1 | vs Alnylam → |
Mid-cap Biotech (29)
Tier 2Companies with approved drugs and at least one Phase 3 program.
| Company | Programs (P1/P2/P3) | Expected approvals (median [80% CI]) | Top indications | Recent terminations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Boehringer Ingelheim 85 active · 63 programs | 29/17/17 | 18 [14–22] | obesitysolid tumorssmall cell lung carcinoma (sclc) | 7 |
Daiichi Sankyo 49 active · 47 programs | 15/13/19 | 17 [13–21] | advanced solid tumorbreast cancernon-small cell lung cancer | 1 |
Incyte Corporation 56 active · 41 programs | 12/14/15 | 14 [11–18] | solid tumorsmyeloproliferative neoplasmschronic graft-versus-host-disease | 6 |
UCB Biopharma SRL 33 active · 21 programs | 2/1/18 | 11 [8–14] | generalized myasthenia gravispsoriatic arthritismoderate to severe plaque psoriasis | 1 |
BioNTech SE 31 active · 30 programs | 5/15/10 | 11 [8–14] | non-small cell lung cancercovid-19advanced solid tumor | 3 |
| Company | Programs (P1/P2/P3) | Expected approvals (median [80% CI]) | Top indications | Recent terminations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
argenx 26 active · 20 programs | 1/7/12 | 9 [7–12] | generalized myasthenia gravismultifocal motor neuropathy (mmn)chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy | 2 |
Bayer 34 active · 29 programs | 11/9/9 | 9 [6–12] | chronic kidney diseaseadvanced solid tumorsadvanced non-small cell lung cancer | — |
BeiGene 31 active · 29 programs | 10/11/8 | 9 [6–12] | advanced solid tumornon-small cell lung cancerurothelial carcinoma | 6 |
Biocad 25 active · 18 programs | 1/5/12 | 9 [6–11] | hemophilia badvanced melanomaaxial spondyloarthritis | — |
BeOne Medicines 36 active · 32 programs | 19/4/9 | 8 [6–11] | advanced solid tumorchronic lymphocytic leukemiacll | — |
Genmab 31 active · 23 programs | 4/13/6 | 8 [5–11] | diffuse large b-cell lymphomasolid tumorsnon-hodgkin lymphoma | 9 |
ViiV Healthcare 24 active · 21 programs | 7/4/10 | 8 [5–10] | hiv infectionshivinfection, human immunodeficiency virus | — |
Ipsen 19 active · 17 programs | 1/9/7 | 7 [5–9] | episodic migraineprimary sclerosing cholangitismoderate to severe glabellar lines | 1 |
Exelixis 18 active · 17 programs | 8/1/8 | 6 [4–8] | pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (pnet)locally advanced or metastatic solid tumorsrenal cell carcinoma (rcc) | 2 |
Colgate Palmolive 9 active · 7 programs | 0/0/7 | 4 [3–6] | plaquegingivitisoral malodor | — |
CSL Behring 15 active · 9 programs | 0/4/5 | 4 [2–6] | hemophilia bcomplex cardiovascular surgery with cardiopulmonary bypasssickle cell disease vaso-occlusive crisis | 1 |
Octapharma 9 active · 7 programs | 0/0/7 | 4 [3–6] | acquired antithrombin deficiencyhemophilia acongenital antithrombin deficiency | — |
Bio-Thera Solutions 10 active · 9 programs | 2/4/3 | 3 [2–5] | advanced solid tumorsdiabetic macular edema (dme)minimal change disease (mcd) | 4 |
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited 7 active · 6 programs | 1/1/4 | 3 [1–4] | type ii diabetes mellitusmoderate-to-severe chronic plaque psoriasismoderate to severe genital psoriasis | — |
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum 9 active · 6 programs | 1/1/4 | 3 [1–4] | hemophilia ahaemophilia a (moderate or severe)vexas | — |
Pierre Fabre Medicament 8 active · 8 programs | 1/5/2 | 3 [1–4] | non-small cell lung cancerepstein-barr virus+ associated post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (ebv+ ptld)epstein-barr virus (ebv)-associated diseases | — |
Cytokinetics 5 active · 5 programs | 0/1/4 | 3 [1–4] | pediatricheart failuresymptomatic non-obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy | 1 |
Glaukos Corporation 9 active · 6 programs | 0/3/3 | 3 [1–4] | glaucomaglaucoma, open-angledemodex blepharitis | — |
Juno Therapeutics, Inc., a Bristol-Myers Squibb Company 10 active · 10 programs | 5/3/2 | 3 [1–4] | multiple myelomalupus erythematosus, systemicrelapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (rrmm) | 2 |
Telix Pharmaceuticals (Innovations) Pty Limited 9 active · 6 programs | 2/0/4 | 3 [1–4] | neoplastic diseaseccrccbone pain | — |
PharmaEssentia 7 active · 6 programs | 1/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | polycythemia veraessential thrombocythemiaprimary myelofibrosis | — |
BicycleTx Limited 7 active · 7 programs | 0/6/1 | 2 [1–4] | non-small cell lung cancermetastatic urothelial cancerbreast cancer | — |
Karuna Therapeutics, Inc., a Bristol Myers Squibb company 9 active · 4 programs | 0/0/4 | 2 [1–4] | psychosis associated with alzheimer's diseaseschizophreniaalzheimer disease | — |
Insmed Incorporated 5 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | pulmonary arterial hypertensionpulmonary hypertensionhidradenitis suppurativa | — |
Clinical-stage with Phase 3 (99)
Tier 3No approved drugs yet, but at least one Phase 3 program. Highest M&A target density.
| Company | Programs (P1/P2/P3) | Expected approvals (median [80% CI]) | Top indications | Recent terminations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EMS 14 active · 14 programs | 0/0/14 | 8 [6–11] | primary dysmenorrheatype 2 diabetes mellitusandrogenetic alopecia | 1 |
Vanda Pharmaceuticals 18 active · 16 programs | 1/4/11 | 8 [6–10] | schizophreniasleep wake disordersmotion sickness | — |
ImmunityBio, Inc. 25 active · 25 programs | 6/14/5 | 8 [5–11] | nmibclong covidhigh-risk prostate cancer | 1 |
Astellas Pharma Global Development, Inc. 28 active · 23 programs | 7/10/6 | 7 [5–10] | prostate cancerlocally advanced unresectable gastroesophageal junction (gej) adenocarcinoma or cancerpancreatic cancer | 5 |
Genentech, Inc. 42 active · 35 programs | 20/13/2 | 7 [4–10] | diabetic macular edemabreast cancernon-small cell lung cancer | 5 |
| Company | Programs (P1/P2/P3) | Expected approvals (median [80% CI]) | Top indications | Recent terminations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Otsuka Pharmaceutical Development & Commercialization, Inc. 19 active · 17 programs | 4/4/9 | 7 [5–9] | phenylketonuriaadhdschizophrenia | 2 |
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 18 active · 15 programs | 2/4/9 | 7 [5–9] | transthyretin-mediated amyloid cardiomyopathy (attr cm)angelman syndromefamilial chylomicronemia syndrome | 1 |
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals 18 active · 16 programs | 2/8/6 | 6 [4–9] | homozygous familial hypercholesterolemiasevere hypertriglyceridemiahypertriglyceridemia | — |
Allist Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 14 active · 13 programs | 2/5/6 | 5 [3–7] | nsclckras p.g12cadvanced colorectal cancer | — |
EMD Serono Research & Development Institute, Inc. 18 active · 18 programs | 8/6/4 | 5 [3–7] | advanced solid tumorsolid tumorsnon-small cell lung cancer | 4 |
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc 12 active · 9 programs | 0/2/7 | 5 [3–7] | angelman syndromeosteogenesis imperfectalong-chain fatty acid oxidation disorders (lc-faod) | — |
Praxis Precision Medicines 10 active · 9 programs | 0/2/7 | 5 [3–7] | focal epilepsyscn2a encephalopathydevelopmental and epileptic encephalopathy 1 | — |
Luye Pharma Group Ltd. 19 active · 15 programs | 5/6/4 | 5 [3–7] | schizophreniamajor depressive disorderhallucinations and delusions associated with alzheimer's disease psychosis | — |
Addpharma Inc. 21 active · 19 programs | 13/1/5 | 5 [3–7] | mixed dyslipidemiabenign prostatic hyperplasiahypertension | — |
Philogen S.p.A. 16 active · 15 programs | 4/8/3 | 5 [3–7] | soft tissue sarcomaglioblastomalocally advanced basal cell carcinoma | 1 |
Jemincare 22 active · 20 programs | 11/7/2 | 4 [2–7] | adpkd (autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease)chronic spontaneous urticariaallergic diseases | — |
Taiho Oncology, Inc. 13 active · 11 programs | 1/6/4 | 4 [2–6] | acute myeloid leukemialocally advanced unresectable or metastatic solid tumors including esophageal cancernsclc, stage ib-iiia | — |
Intra-Cellular Therapies, Inc. 14 active · 10 programs | 1/4/5 | 4 [2–6] | generalized anxiety disorderirritability associated with autism spectrum disorderbipolar disorder, manic | — |
CanSino Biologics Inc. 14 active · 11 programs | 4/1/6 | 4 [2–6] | diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussismeningococcal meningitisepidemic meningitis | — |
Eurofarma Laboratorios S.A. 7 active · 7 programs | 0/0/7 | 4 [3–6] | androgenetic alopeciafemale pattern hair lossmoderate asthma | 7 |
Dizal Pharmaceuticals 17 active · 13 programs | 2/9/2 | 4 [2–6] | non-small cell lung cancerlymphoma, non-hodgkinnon small cell lung cancer | — |
H. Lundbeck A/S 12 active · 11 programs | 2/5/4 | 4 [2–6] | migrainemultiple system atrophythyroid eye disease | — |
Acerta Pharma BV 15 active · 11 programs | 2/5/4 | 4 [2–6] | chronic lymphocytic leukemiamantle cell lymphoma (mcl)diffuse large b-cell lymphoma | — |
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 13 active · 9 programs | 1/3/5 | 4 [2–6] | non-transfusion-dependent alpha-thalassemiatransfusion-dependent alpha-thalassemiasickle cell disease | 1 |
Chiesi Farmaceutici S.p.A. 9 active · 8 programs | 0/3/5 | 4 [2–6] | fabry diseaseasthmaidiopathic pulmonary fibrosis | 3 |
Eisai Inc. 13 active · 12 programs | 3/6/3 | 4 [2–6] | early alzheimer's diseasenarcolepsyendometrial neoplasms | — |
Han Xu, M.D., Ph.D., FAPCR, Sponsor-Investigator, IRB Chair 7 active · 7 programs | 1/0/6 | 4 [2–5] | non-small cell lung cancerbreast cancersclc | — |
DualityBio Inc. 11 active · 11 programs | 1/8/2 | 4 [2–6] | advanced solid tumoradvanced/metastatic solid tumorssolid tumor, adult | — |
Chipscreen Biosciences, Ltd. 11 active · 11 programs | 4/3/4 | 4 [2–5] | t2dm (type 2 diabetes mellitus)advanced tumorscolorectal cancer | — |
Neurocrine Biosciences 20 active · 8 programs | 0/4/4 | 4 [2–5] | schizophreniamajor depressive disordercongenital adrenal hyperplasia | — |
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. 9 active · 6 programs | 0/0/6 | 4 [2–5] | major depressive disorderfocal epilepsybipolar depression | — |
Revolution Medicines, Inc. 12 active · 11 programs | 3/5/3 | 4 [2–5] | non-small cell lung cancer (nsclc)pancreatic cancercolorectal cancer | — |
Biotheus Inc. 12 active · 10 programs | 0/8/2 | 4 [2–6] | sclccrc (colorectal cancer)nsclc | — |
Immunovant Sciences GmbH 11 active · 9 programs | 0/7/2 | 3 [2–5] | graves' diseasechronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathygeneralized myasthenia gravis | 1 |
Alkermes, Inc. 7 active · 6 programs | 0/1/5 | 3 [2–5] | narcolepsy type 1narcolepsy type 2bipolar i disorder | — |
Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, LLC 9 active · 8 programs | 1/4/3 | 3 [1–5] | gisttenosynovial giant cell tumorrenal cell carcinoma | 3 |
Zenas BioPharma (USA), LLC 7 active · 7 programs | 1/2/4 | 3 [2–5] | secondary progressive multiple sclerosisigg4 related diseasemultiple sclerosis (ms) primary progressive | — |
Sinotau Pharmaceutical Group 7 active · 7 programs | 1/2/4 | 3 [2–5] | prostate cancercoronary artery disease(cad)ischemic cardiomyopathy | — |
BeBetter Med Inc 8 active · 8 programs | 1/4/3 | 3 [1–5] | mild to moderate hypertension and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterolpolycythemia verahr+/her2- locally advanced, metastatic breast cancer | — |
Evopoint Biosciences Inc. 9 active · 9 programs | 0/8/1 | 3 [1–5] | advanced solid tumorsrelapsed/refractory peripheral t cell lymphomatumor, solid | — |
Kedrion S.p.A. 5 active · 5 programs | 0/0/5 | 3 [2–4] | chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathychronic primary immune thrombocytopenia (itp)acquired factor x deficiency | — |
Grifols Therapeutics LLC 6 active · 5 programs | 0/0/5 | 3 [2–4] | hypogammaglobulinemiapulmonary emphysema in alpha-1 pi deficiencypulmonary emphysema in alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency | — |
Applied Biology, Inc. 6 active · 6 programs | 0/2/4 | 3 [2–5] | chemotherapy induced alopeciacanitiestelogen effluvium | — |
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc 8 active · 7 programs | 0/4/3 | 3 [1–5] | myelofibrosisendometrial cancermultiple myeloma, refractory | 1 |
Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 6 active · 6 programs | 0/2/4 | 3 [2–5] | pnhc3ggeographic atrophy secondary to age-related macular degeneration | — |
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. 6 active · 5 programs | 0/0/5 | 3 [2–4] | binge-eating disordermajor depressive disorder with excessive daytime sleepiness symptomsfibromyalgia | — |
LaNova Medicines Limited 10 active · 9 programs | 0/8/1 | 3 [1–5] | advanced solid tumormalignant tumorsadvanced solid tumor cancer | — |
Inmunotek S.L. 5 active · 5 programs | 0/0/5 | 3 [2–4] | rhinitis, allergicrhinitisallergic rhinitis | — |
4D Molecular Therapeutics 9 active · 8 programs | 1/5/2 | 3 [1–4] | fabry diseaseneovascular age-related macular degeneration (namd)macular neovascularization secondary to age-related macular degeneration | — |
Arcus Biosciences, Inc. 9 active · 9 programs | 4/2/3 | 3 [1–4] | advanced canceradvanced upper gastrointestinal tract adenocarcinomametastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma | — |
Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 9 active · 6 programs | 0/3/3 | 3 [1–4] | chronic hepatitis d infectionchronic hepatitis dprimary biliary cholangitis | — |
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Inc. 9 active · 6 programs | 0/3/3 | 3 [1–4] | congenital adrenal hyperplasiaacromegalycarcinoid syndrome | — |
Hudson Biotech 8 active · 8 programs | 0/7/1 | 3 [1–4] | obesityprediabetesatherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases | — |
Almirall, S.A. 9 active · 6 programs | 0/3/3 | 3 [1–4] | hidradenitis suppurativaatopic dermatitisalopecia areata | — |
PT. Prodia Stem Cell Indonesia 8 active · 8 programs | 0/7/1 | 3 [1–4] | acute respiratory distress syndromeischemic strokenasopharyngeal cancer | — |
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 7 active · 6 programs | 0/3/3 | 3 [1–4] | hypothalamic obesityprader-willi syndromeobesity | — |
AB Science 5 active · 5 programs | 0/1/4 | 3 [1–4] | alzheimer diseaseamyotrophic lateral sclerosis (als)acute myeloid leukemia refractory | — |
GC Biopharma Corp 7 active · 7 programs | 2/2/3 | 3 [1–4] | varicella (chickenpox)fabry disesasesanfilippo syndrome type a | — |
Replimune, Inc. 8 active · 8 programs | 2/4/2 | 3 [1–4] | metastatic uveal melanomahepatocellular carcinomaadvanced melanoma | 2 |
CStone Pharmaceuticals 6 active · 6 programs | 1/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | advanced solid tumorsextranodal nk/t-cell lymphomaadvanced or metastatic ros1-positive non-small cell lung cancer | — |
Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. 8 active · 8 programs | 1/6/1 | 2 [1–4] | metastatic melanomaunresectable melanomametastatic non small cell lung cancer | 1 |
Corcept Therapeutics 9 active · 8 programs | 1/6/1 | 2 [1–4] | nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (nash)ovarian cancerneoplasms | — |
ADARx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 9 active · 7 programs | 1/4/2 | 2 [1–4] | hereditary angioedemaimmunoglobulin a nephropathy (igan)paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (pnh) | — |
Changchun BCHT Biotechnology Co. 10 active · 8 programs | 4/1/3 | 2 [1–4] | influenzarabies preventionpertussis (whooping cough) | — |
Kind Pharmaceuticals LLC 7 active · 7 programs | 1/4/2 | 2 [1–4] | anemia due to chronic kidney diseaseadvanced or metastatic breast cancerβ -thalassemia | — |
Longbio Pharma 8 active · 8 programs | 1/6/1 | 2 [1–4] | allergic diseaseschronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (crswnp)complement-mediated renal diseases | — |
Alfasigma S.p.A. 6 active · 5 programs | 1/0/4 | 3 [1–4] | ulcerative colitisjuvenile idiopathic arthritisaxial spondyloarthritis | — |
Azafaros A.G. 5 active · 5 programs | 0/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | niemann-pick type c diseasegm2 gangliosidosisgangliosidoses, gm2 | — |
Galderma R&D 5 active · 5 programs | 0/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | systemic sclerosischronic pruritus of unknown originacne vulgaris | — |
Yuhan Corporation 9 active · 6 programs | 0/4/2 | 2 [1–4] | allergic diseasesher2-positive solid tumoressential hypertension | — |
EyeBiotech Ltd. 6 active · 5 programs | 0/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | diabetic macular edema (dme)macular degenerationneovascular age-related macular degeneration (nvamd) | — |
Nuvation Bio Inc. 6 active · 5 programs | 0/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | non small cell lung cancernon-small cell lung cancer (nsclc)glioma | 1 |
United Therapeutics 6 active · 5 programs | 0/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | esrd (end-stage renal disease)idiopathic pulmonary fibrosisprogressive pulmonary fibrosis | — |
Ferring Pharmaceuticals 5 active · 5 programs | 0/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | bowel preparationintermediate risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancernon-muscle invasive bladder cancer with carcinoma in situ | 5 |
Eikon Therapeutics 6 active · 6 programs | 0/4/2 | 2 [1–4] | advanced solid tumorsadvanced solid tumornon small cell lung cancer (squamous or non squamous) | — |
Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 0/0/4 | 2 [1–4] | neovascular age-related macular degenerationneovascular age-related macular degeneration (namd)non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy | — |
Verastem, Inc. 7 active · 7 programs | 0/6/1 | 2 [1–4] | low grade serous ovarian cancernon small cell lung cancerpancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma | — |
Amicus Therapeutics 4 active · 4 programs | 0/0/4 | 2 [1–4] | fabry diseaseglycogen storage disease type ii infantile onsetpompe disease (late-onset) | — |
Debiopharm International SA 9 active · 8 programs | 3/3/2 | 2 [1–4] | small cell lung cancer recurrentadvanced solid tumorsglioblastoma idh (isocitrate dehydrogenase) wildtype | 1 |
Materia Medica Holding 4 active · 4 programs | 0/0/4 | 2 [1–4] | rhinosinusitisacute respiratory viral infectioncystitis chronic | — |
Avidity Biosciences, Inc. 5 active · 5 programs | 0/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | myotonic dystrophy type 1dm1facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy | — |
Laboratorios Silanes S.A. de C.V. 4 active · 4 programs | 0/0/4 | 2 [1–4] | allergic rhinitisjoint paingout arthritis | — |
Jina Pharmaceuticals Inc. 5 active · 5 programs | 0/2/3 | 2 [1–4] | metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, mcrpctriple negative breast cancerbipolar 1 disorder | — |
Teva Branded Pharmaceutical Products R&D LLC 8 active · 7 programs | 2/3/2 | 2 [1–4] | multiple system atrophyasthmaceliac disease | — |
TYK Medicines, Inc 9 active · 8 programs | 2/5/1 | 2 [1–4] | nsclcsolid tumor malignanciesmcrpc | — |
Disc Medicine, Inc 6 active · 6 programs | 1/3/2 | 2 [1–4] | inflammatory bowel disease (ibd)erythropoietic protoporphyria (epp)sickle cell disease | — |
Onconic Therapeutics Inc. 7 active · 6 programs | 1/3/2 | 2 [1–4] | ovarian cancerpancreatic ductal adenocarcinomagastric cancer (gc) | — |
IDEAYA Biosciences 10 active · 8 programs | 4/2/2 | 2 [1–4] | uveal melanomametastatic uveal melanomasolid tumor | — |
MAXVAX Biotechnology Limited Liability Company 9 active · 6 programs | 1/3/2 | 2 [1–4] | herpes zosterrespiratory syncytial virus (rsv)rotavirus infections | — |
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. 7 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | alzheimer's disease psychosislewy body dementia psychosishyperphagia in prader-willi syndrome | — |
Akero Therapeutics, Inc 4 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | nash - nonalcoholic steatohepatitisnash with fibrosisnash/mash | — |
Intellia Therapeutics 4 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | hereditary angioedemaneuromuscular diseasetransthyretin amyloidosis (attr) with cardiomyopathy | — |
Priovant Therapeutics, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | lichen planopilarisuveitis, posteriordermatomyositis | — |
Cabaletta Bio 6 active · 6 programs | 0/5/1 | 2 [1–4] | idiopathic inflammatory myopathysystemic lupus erythematosussystemic sclerosis | — |
Dr. Falk Pharma GmbH 4 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | primary sclerosing cholangitisceliac diseaseeosinophilic esophagitis | — |
Pharmazz, Inc. 7 active · 5 programs | 0/3/2 | 2 [1–3] | hypovolemic shockacute respiratory distress syndrome (ards)acute cerebral ischemia | — |
OncoC4, Inc. 8 active · 8 programs | 3/4/1 | 2 [1–4] | advanced solid tumornon small cell lung cancerovarian cancer | 1 |
Pharmacosmos A/S 6 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | iron deficiency, anaemia in childrenlimited stage small cell lung cancerbeta thalassemia major anemia | — |
Dompé Farmaceutici S.p.A 4 active · 4 programs | 0/1/3 | 2 [1–3] | persistent corneal epithelial defectdry eye disease (ded)non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy | — |
Early-stage hot bets (50)
Tier 4 · sorted by heatPhase 1/2-only sponsors operating in therapeutic areas where big pharma has been actively acquiring. Wong PoS at this stage isn't precise enough to rank — heat captures "in-demand" instead.
| Company | Programs (P1/P2) | Hot TA match | Recent acquirers in space | Top indications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Miltenyi Biomedicine GmbH 10 active · 9 programs | 2/7 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | leukemia, myeloid, acuteacute lymphoblastic leukemia recurrentdlbcl - diffuse large b cell lymphoma |
TORL Biotherapeutics, LLC 8 active · 7 programs | 5/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | advanced solid tumorhistologically confirmed relapsed or refractory b-cell non-hodgkin lymphomafigo stage iii and iv ovarian cancer |
HC Biopharma Inc. 8 active · 7 programs | 6/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | advanced solid tumor canceradvanced solid tumorsystemic lupus erythematosus (sle) |
Xencor, Inc. 6 active · 6 programs | 4/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | ovarian cancerrheumatoid arthritisulcerative colitis (uc) |
Juventas Cell Therapy Ltd. 5 active · 5 programs | 2/3 | 🔥 Immunology | Gilead Sciences, Novartis | aiha - cold autoimmune hemolytic anemiab-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemiarelapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia |
Allogene Therapeutics 5 active · 5 programs | 3/2 | 🔥 Immunology | Gilead Sciences, Novartis | systemic lupus erythematosus (with and without nephritis)large b-cell lymphomarelapsed or refractory large b cell lymphoma, relapsed or refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia, relapsed or refractory small lymphocytic lymphoma |
Tarapeutics Science Inc. 5 active · 5 programs | 3/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (aml)advanced solid tumornon-hodgkin's lymphoma, relapsed |
MapLight Therapeutics 6 active · 4 programs | 0/4 | 🔥 CNS | Otsuka Pharmaceutical, Collegium Pharmaceutical | psychosis associated with alzheimer's diseaseautism spectrum disorderschizophrenia |
Criterium, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 0/4 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | breast cancercolorectal cancerher2-positive metastatic breast cancer |
CellSight Technologies, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 0/4 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | advanced non small cell lung cancercovid19hiv infections |
| Company | Programs (P1/P2) | Hot TA match | Recent acquirers in space | Top indications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ellipses Pharma 4 active · 4 programs | 0/4 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | hormone receptor-positive breast canceradvanced solid tumoracute myeloid leukemia |
Salubris Biotherapeutics Inc 4 active · 4 programs | 0/4 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | solid tumorhfref - heart failure with reduced ejection fractionheart failure with reduced ejection fraction |
Prevail Therapeutics 5 active · 4 programs | 1/3 | 🔥 Rare Disease | Gilead Sciences, Neurocrine Biosciences | gaucher diseasegaucher disease, type 2parkinson disease |
Aadi Bioscience, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 1/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | tumor, solidendometrial cancerneuroendocrine tumors |
BeyondBio Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 1/3 | 🔥 CNS | Otsuka Pharmaceutical, Collegium Pharmaceutical | alzheimer diseasemetastatic colorectal cancerlocally advanced or metastatic pancreatic cancer |
Biomea Fusion Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 2/2 | 🔥 Metabolic | Neurocrine Biosciences, Novo Nordisk | type 2 diabetesobesityacute myeloid leukemia |
MacroGenics 4 active · 4 programs | 3/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | platinum-resistant ovarian canceradvanced solid tumorleukemia, acute myeloid |
Coherus Oncology, Inc. 5 active · 4 programs | 3/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | hepatocellular carcinomanasopharyngeal cancer recurrentmetastatic solid tumor |
Nerviano Medical Sciences 4 active · 4 programs | 3/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | ovarian cancersmall cell lung cancerrelapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia |
TILT Biotherapeutics Ltd. 4 active · 4 programs | 3/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | metastatic melanomalung cancerplatinum-refractory ovarian carcinoma |
Bio-Path Holdings, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 3/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | acute myeloid leukemia, in relapseacute myeloid leukemia (aml)solid tumor, adult |
Poseida Therapeutics, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 4/0 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | multiple myelomadiffuse large b-cell lymphoma, not otherwise specifiedbreast cancer |
Puma Biotechnology, Inc. 3 active · 3 programs | 0/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | small cell lung cancer ( sclc )small cell lung cancerhormone receptor positive her-2 negative breast cancer |
Oncolytics Biotech 3 active · 3 programs | 0/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | ras-mutated metastatic colorectal canceranal cancer metastaticbreast cancer metastatic |
AGO Research GmbH 3 active · 3 programs | 0/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | epithelial ovarian cancerrecurrent vulvar cancerrecurrent epithelial ovarian, fallopian or peritoneal carcinoma |
Brii Biosciences Limited 3 active · 3 programs | 0/3 | 🔥 Infectious Disease | Merck, BioNTech | chronic hepatitis b virus infectionchronic hepatitis b virus (hbv) infectionfor treatment of chronic hepatitis b virus infection |
TaiRx, Inc. 4 active · 3 programs | 1/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | hcc - hepatocellular carcinomaadvanced solid tumorhepatocellular carcinoma |
CRISPR Therapeutics AG 4 active · 3 programs | 1/2 | 🔥 Cardiovascular | GlaxoSmithKline, Eli Lilly | cardiovascularb-cell lymphomadiabetes mellitus |
Apollo Therapeutics Ltd 3 active · 3 programs | 1/2 | 🔥 Cardiovascular | GlaxoSmithKline, Eli Lilly | pulmonary arterial hypertensionacute myeloid leukemia refractorycolorectal cancer |
Cellectis S.A. 3 active · 3 programs | 1/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | b-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemiab-cell non-hodgkin lymphoma (b-nhl)relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia |
Mersana Therapeutics 3 active · 3 programs | 2/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | triple negative breast cancerher2-positive breast cancerplatinum resistant ovarian cancer |
NextCure, Inc. 3 active · 3 programs | 2/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | advanced solid tumorsovarian canceradvanced or metastatic solid tumors |
Lyvgen Biopharma Holdings Limited 4 active · 3 programs | 2/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | cancersoft tissue sarcomahead and neck squamous cell carcinoma |
Context Therapeutics Inc. 3 active · 3 programs | 3/0 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | platinum-resistant ovarian cancermesothelin-expressing tumorstriple negative breast cancer (tnbc) |
Marker Therapeutics, Inc. 3 active · 3 programs | 3/0 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | acute myeloid leukemia, in relapsenon-hodgkin lymphoma, adultpancreas cancer |
Celyad Oncology SA 4 active · 3 programs | 3/0 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | unresectable metastatic colorectal cancerrelapse/refractory multiple myelomaacute myeloid leukemia |
MeiraGTx, LLC 4 active · 1 programs | 1/0 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | grade 2 and 3 late xerostomia caused by radiotherapy for cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract, excluding the parotid glandssquamous cell head and neck cancerparkinson's disease |
Grit Biotechnology 7 active · 7 programs | 4/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | solid tumors, adultadultadvanced clear renal cell carcinoma |
Kumquat Biosciences Inc. 7 active · 7 programs | 6/1 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | solid tumor malignanciesgist - gastrointestinal stromal tumorhematologic malignancies |
Ryvu Therapeutics SA 6 active · 6 programs | 0/6 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | non-hodgkin lymphoma, b-celladvanced solid tumorsmyelofibrosis |
Hebei Senlang Biotechnology Inc., Ltd. 6 active · 6 programs | 2/4 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | multiple myeloma in relapseb-allt lymphoblastic leukemia/lymphoma |
SystImmune Inc. 6 active · 6 programs | 6/0 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | gastric adenocarcinomaendometrial cancersmall cell lung cancer metastatic or locally advanced |
BioInvent International AB 5 active · 5 programs | 0/5 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | solid tumor, adultadvanced malignanciesmelanoma metastatic |
Autolus Limited 6 active · 5 programs | 2/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | relapsed or refractory b cell acute lymphoblastic leukemiaprogressive multiple sclerosissystemic lupus erythematosus |
Radiopharm Theranostics, Ltd 5 active · 5 programs | 2/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | castration-resistant prostate cancerpancreatic ductal adenocarcinomacastration-resistant prostate cancer (crpc) |
Excyte Biopharma Ltd 6 active · 5 programs | 3/2 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | primary membranous nephropathyb-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemiasystemic lupus erythematosus (sle) |
Rise Therapeutics LLC 5 active · 5 programs | 5/0 | 🔥 Immunology | Gilead Sciences, Novartis | copd (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease)ulcerative colitis chronic mildarthritis, rheumatoid |
Tango Therapeutics, Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 0/4 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | non small cell lung cancerlocally advanced solid tumorpdac |
AskBio Inc 6 active · 4 programs | 1/3 | 🔥 Cardiovascular | GlaxoSmithKline, Eli Lilly | congestive heart failurepompe disease (late-onset)limb girdle muscular dystrophy |
Agenus Inc. 4 active · 4 programs | 1/3 | 🔥 Oncology | Gilead Sciences, Servier | advanced canceradvanced melanomametastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma |
How the math works
Programs at lead active phase. For each company we count (drug × indication) programs at their highest currently-active phase — that's Wong's denominator. A drug running 12 active Ph3 trials in different indications counts as 12 programs (one per indication), not 12 trials of one program.
Monte Carlo simulation. We run 10,000 iterations per company with industry-average probability-of-success rates (Phase 1 → 10%, Phase 2 → 30%, Phase 3 → 60% from Wong). Each iteration flips a biased coin per program at its current phase; the simulation produces a distribution of total approvals over the program lifetime (~5-10 years).
Global rates only (not TA-specific). The same 10/30/60 rates apply to every program regardless of therapeutic area. Real success rates differ substantially — oncology is the worst, hematology and infectious disease the best. TA-specific rate weighting is on the roadmap; for now treat the league as TA-agnostic.
Wong TA-specific PoS reference table (not currently applied)
| Therapeutic area | Phase 1 → approval | Phase 2 → approval | Phase 3 → approval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hematology | 26.1% | 56.5% | 73.5% |
| Allergy | 23.4% | 51.5% | 75.0% |
| Endocrine | 17.7% | 38.3% | 65.0% |
| Ophthalmology | 13.6% | 27.8% | 65.0% |
| Respiratory | 13.2% | 36.4% | 70.6% |
| Infectious disease | 13.2% | 41.2% | 70.9% |
| Cardiovascular | 14.4% | 31.0% | 65.5% |
| Neurology | 14.2% | 30.5% | 51.9% |
| Gastroenterology | 11.0% | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| Oncology | 5.1% | 24.6% | 35.5% |
| Global average (used here) | 10.0% | 30.0% | 60.0% |
Source: Wong, Siah, Lo. Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters. The oncology PoS is dramatically lower than other areas — a heavy-oncology pipeline (Roche, Merck) is meaningfully riskier than the global rates suggest, while a metabolic / endocrine company (Lilly's GLP-1 portfolio) sees higher real success rates.
Display: median [80% CI]. "9 [5–15]" means median 9 expected approvals across 10K MC runs, with 80% confidence the count lands between 5 and 15. The range matters more than the point estimate — small-pipeline companies have wide tails.
Recent terminations (last 12 months). Counts trials with status TERMINATED / WITHDRAWN / SUSPENDED whose primaryCompletionDate falls in the last 12 months. A noisy quality signal — termination can mean "drug failed" or "sponsor deprioritized" or "slow enrollment" — but elevated counts (≥5/yr) suggest execution issues worth investigating. Not the same as PoS.
Scope: FDA-track sponsors only. League covers western pharma developing for FDA approval. Chinese, Korean, Russian and other non-FDA-track sponsors are filtered out — outside the scope of this dashboard. Already-acquired big pharma (Shire, Allergan, Actelion, Loxo, Karuna etc.) are excluded too; their leftover trials persist in the data but the entities don't exist as standalone league participants.
Caveat: programs treated as independent. Correlated outcomes (same drug across indications, shared TA shocks) are not modeled. Use as baseline; apply your own judgment about correlation. Adjust PoS rates at top of page to test sensitivity.
Data: 147,532 trials from ClinicalTrials.gov (Phase 1-4, 2008+). Industry sponsors only.
PoS source: Wong industry-average rates (Ph1 10% / Ph2 30% / Ph3 60% — global, not TA-specific in this build).