Pfizer, Amgen, Lilly, Merck, and Astellas all failed at IGF-1R in cancer. Then a shelved Roche antibody became the only effective treatment for thyroid eye disease. Same receptor, completely different biology.
Five major pharmas spent two decades chasing IGF-1R as a cancer target. Every Phase 3 trial failed. The only IGF-1R drug ever approved is for thyroid eye disease — Tepezza, which generated $1.9 billion in 2024 and 8x exceeded its acquirer's peak forecast. Eleven more IGF-1R-for-TED programs are now in clinical trials, including the literal cancer-graveyard compound being resurrected by Sling Therapeutics. Targets don't travel. Disease context decides.
Every approved IBD drug fights inflammation. None of them touch fibrosis. TL1A does both.
30% of Crohn's disease patients will need surgery within ten years of diagnosis - not because their drugs failed to control inflammation, but because no approved drug stops the scar tissue that narrows their bowel. TL1A is the first target that could change that. Here is the biology behind the $18 billion bet.
How a quiet antibody program in the Netherlands became the highest-revenue drug in pharmaceutical history.
Keytruda was invented at Organon in the Netherlands, buried in two acquisitions, and became a $32B/year franchise across 20 cancer types. Nearly half of Merck's total revenue now depends on one molecule. Its US patent expires December 2028.
$6 billion in revenue. Generics launch May 2026. The decline already started.
Januvia was a $6 billion franchise for a decade. Generics launch in May 2026, but revenue is already down 64% from peak - squeezed by GLP-1 competition from above and generic anticipation from below.
