3 briefs
How a quiet antibody program in the Netherlands became the highest-revenue drug in pharmaceutical history.
Keytruda was invented at Organon in the Netherlands, buried in two acquisitions, and became a $32B/year franchise across 20 cancer types. Nearly half of Merck's total revenue now depends on one molecule. Its US patent expires December 2028.
Lessons from Humira.
Amgen got FDA approval for Amjevita in September 2016. It shipped its first US vial in January 2023. Six and a half years between approval and market entry - and nine more Humira biosimilars followed the same pattern. The gap between "approved" and "on sale" isn't a quirk of Humira. It's how biologics competition works.
$6 billion in revenue. Generics launch May 2026. The decline already started.
Januvia was a $6 billion franchise for a decade. Generics launch in May 2026, but revenue is already down 64% from peak - squeezed by GLP-1 competition from above and generic anticipation from below.
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